StarTribune.com

economy


Resources for tough times

Thursday, July 10th, 2008

The helpful folks over at the Minnesota Extension Service have compiled 17 fact sheets chock full of tips for getting through times when money is tight.

From deciding which bills to pay first to communicating under pressure, you’ll get some unbiased, reasonable advice from these pages.

But I especially like the section for helping kids get through tough times. How do you talk to a teen about working to help pay the bills or moving because of a foreclosure? I think kids often get left out of the discussion. On the flip side, people tend to use credit to extend an unsustainable lifestyle because they don’t want to disappoint their children or are clueless about discussing their financial reality with their kids.

Another Extension resource worthy of linking to in these times is adjusting to suddenly reduced income. 

Opinions are for show, numbers are for dough

Monday, May 12th, 2008

“Opinions are for show, numbers are for dough”

Don’t you love that? It’s one of Minneapolis money manager and researcher Steve Leuthold’s phrases, which he shared at the group’s annual luncheon today. Leuthold runs six mutual funds, but is best known for the research that drives the investment decisions behind the funds.

Leuthold is about as down to earth as you get. He started his group’s annual meeting, which was held on the 50th floor of the IDS Center, with an anecdote about how the reason he’s not wearing a suit is because he went to China, gained 8 pounds and can’t button any of his suit pants.

Then again, that’s the kind of thing you expect from a guy whose team named one mutual fund the Undervalued and Unloved Fund with the ticker UGLYX and has a pricey monthly research report that features reader-submitted jokes.

Have you heard the one about the– gosh, I seriously was just looking through their reports and the jokes are either super crass or novel-length. OK, here’s one, titled “You Gotta Love the Irish:”

At a U2 concert in Ireland, Bono (the lead singer) asks the audience for some quiet. Then he starts to slowly clap his hands. Holding the audience in total silence, he says into the microphone…

“I want you to think about something. Every time I clap my hands, a child in Africa dies.”

A voice from the back of the audience yells out…”Then stop yer clapping, ya wanker!”

But seriously, here are a few things of note that Leuthold and friends said today:

They are currently “neutral” on the stock market, meaning the money they manage is 50 percent invested in equities. Leuthold explained that sometimes you just have to wait for the market to reveal its direction. If we could all be so disciplined.

Leuthold thinks we’ve been in a recession for two quarters now despite the official GDP numbers. He called the use of inflation figures that don’t include food or energy prices as “a big joke” and a “seriously flawed” approach. I can’t disagree.

He said based on the historical length of a recession, which is between 11 and 16 months, the time to buy stocks will come about as early as next month, or maybe in August.

He also predicted that interest rates are on the up and up.

And that despite that fact that Wall Street has “gotten through the sub-prime slime,” it’s not time to buy big commercial banks yet (although regional banks look pretty good).

Rough winter, but no recession

Wednesday, April 30th, 2008

Us media folks have really been singing the blues for the past three months, reporting grim economic indicator after depressing consumer confidence survey as evidence that the debt-funded party is O-V-E-R and we’re staring at some tough financial times.

For a while I resisted believing that the economy is in the tank. My informal economic polls of friends, co-workers–really anyone who would take it– indicated that for the most part people were fine personally, although admittedly a little scared by all the depression recession mumbo jumbo.

But despite my informal poll results, I eventually succumbed to recession fever after reading gloomy story after gloomy story and reporting out a fair number that failed to come to a definitive conclusion about the health of our pocketbooks.

Perhaps not knowing is even more terrifying than knowing just how bad things are. It’s the feeling that there’s a monster under the bed, but he hasn’t reached his hand out to grab us–yet.

Now there’s proof that there’s been no recession so far. Our economy grew slightly in the first quarter, like it did in the last quarter. Pretty darn slow, but still in positive territory.

In other news, the Federal Reserve’s committee also lowered interest rates by a quarter point today, to 2 percent. The committee’s statement was peppered with words like “uncertainty” “subdued” “weak” and “softening.” They were careful to avoid the “r” word. You know, recession. But clearly the troops are on alert.

What do you think? Do you think the country avoided the “r” word in the first quarter but we’re in the midst this quarter? Does it even matter if we’re officially in a recession or not if we’re hunkering down as if we are?

Mindful cutbacks

Thursday, March 27th, 2008

Even if economic uncertainty and financial trouble hasn’t hit your household directly, my guess is you’ve thought about it now and then since the start of the new year. Or is it just me?

I don’t think so. I was talking to one woman today who’s been selling unwanted stuff on Craig’s List, not because she had to, but because it makes her feel better. I relate. I’ve only had one garage sale that’s ever felt worth the time and effort. But I look at the amount of stuff I have that I no longer want and want to take a blowtorch to the snow in my yard.

My personal reaction to all of this doom and gloom is to do as little shopping as possible. Even today, I resisted a sale rack shirt for my son, which in the past I would have justified as a need. But c’mon, the kid is two and I have a washing machine.

What he does need is socks, so I used a $10 gift card to get those for free. How satisfying to walk out of a store with what I need and the same amount of money in my pocket.

Are you changing your shopping or spending habits? If so,  are you making changes because you need to? Or are you wanting to fluff up that cash cushion to relax your mind? Maybe you think all of this worrying is silly.

Is it really so bad?

Friday, March 7th, 2008

Here’s a pile of negative financial news that makes it look as if we’re heading towards h-e- double-hockey sticks in a handbasket financed with a delinquent loan.

#1: The Mortgage Bankers Association said 2 percent of all loans are now in foreclosure and late payments are up 6 percent.

#2: The Federal Reserve announced that Americans average home equity dipped below 50 percent for the first time since such data collection started in 1945.

#3: We lost 63,000 jobs in February– the worst job market in five years–says the Labor Department.

#4: The DOW dropped below 12,000.

I’ve been making it a habit lately to be the life of the party and turn conversation to the economy at any opportunity I get. I ask whether people are feeling strapped personally, or if much of what they read in the papers doesn’t jive with their personal economy.

Believe me, I’m feeling the prices rising on gas and food and am sensitive to the fact that I could lose my job and probably won’t see a pay raise any time soon. But we’re doing OK. This Washington Post story says we’re not the only ones.

What do you think? Are reports of financial instability and doom and gloom overblown? Are we collectively okey-dokey? Or do you believe things are only going to take a turn for the worse?

You have 30 minutes to answer this essay question, starting NOW.