Of the two big states holding primaries Tuesday, Ohio had seemed to be Hillary Rodham Clinton’s best chance of ending Barack Obama’s winning streak. But in recent days her lead in the polls has been shrinking.

What was an 8-point lead in a poll taken early in the week is now within the margin of error in three polls taken in recent days.

Meanwhile, Texas – the other big state voting Tuesday — remains a dead heat, with some polls showing Obama ahead by up to 4 points and some showing Clinton ahead by up to 4 points — all within the margin of error.

And if Clinton’s odds of turning this race around don’t seem daunting enough, consider this: Even if she wins the popular vote in Texas, Obama may walk away with more delegates.

Texas has an odd blend of primary and caucus voting to award its 193 pledged delegates. This AP story describes the Texas Two-Step:

Until two decades ago, the primary was advisory only, and all delegates were picked in caucuses. But in 1988, “a group of reformers wanted to put a primary into the process to enhance participation,” according to Ed Martin, a former executive director of the party.

“But they also wanted to maintain elements of the caucus … system to the process. The theory was that’s a way to bring all the new people in and get them involved” in building the party, he said.

Bottom line, 126 delegates at stake in the primary on Tuesday, 67 more in caucuses that convene 15 minutes after the polls close, and more than enough complexity to go around.

Obama was sure making his presence known on the websites of the Dallas Morning News and the Houston Chronicle late Sunday afternoon, with huge banner ads atop the papers’ home pages featuring a large photo of him and a video.

In Ohio, both campaigns are bringing in plenty of political and entertainment celebrities to help out, and it looks like voter turnout will be huge.

Here’s an excerpt from a Cleveland Plain Dealer story about the action in Ohio this weekend:

In Ohio, former President Bill Clinton made stops in Kirtland and Lakewood on Saturday. Actress Melanie Griffin, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend also talked up Clinton across the state.

Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius; Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick; Andy Stern, who heads the powerful Service Employees International Union; actor Kal Penn; and the indie band Arcade Fire planned to lead events in Ohio for Obama this weekend….

The Cuyahoga County elections board was flooded Saturday morning with voters who wanted to cast ballots early under Ohio s new law….

The board also reported that 34 percent of the more than 900,000 people who have requested absentee ballots this year are voters who did not vote in the primary four years ago.

This entry was posted on Monday, March 3rd, 2008 at 4:02 am and is filed under Barack Obama, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Presidential Democratic, Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.