Before the voting started, the consensus was that the presidential nominations would be settled by the earlier-than-ever Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

Now, with that day fast approaching, it’s looking more and more likely that nothing will be settled on Super Tuesday — in either party.

Because the 24 states voting that day have widely divergent demographics and interests, and because the delegate-distribution rules tilt toward apportioning them — rather than winner-take-all — it’s hard to see how any candidate in either party would secure the nomination that night.

At best, a candidate may take a commanding lead — but perhaps still be only about halfway to locking up the number of delegates needed for the nomination.

Here’s a look at the key rules and some possible scenarios in each party’s race on Super Tuesday.

The Democrats
There are 22 states holding Democratic primaries or caucuses, plus American Samoa and Democrats Abroad get to pick delegates, too. All totaled, there are 1,697 pledged delegates up for grabs that day, according to the AP. (That does not count the unpledged, superdelegates those states also have, but who are not selected through the Super Tuesday voting.)

The biggest states are California (370 pledged delegates), New York (232), Illinois (153) and New Jersey (107). Minnesota is the seventh largest state that day (72 pledged delegates, tied with Missouri).

In each state, 75% of the delegates are chosen at the congressional district (or lower) level, and the rest are at-large.

Also, any candidate who receives at least 15% of the vote collects delegates. You can read the rules here.

So, in order to analyze Super Tuesday, you’d need to do a congressional-district-by-congressional-district calculation.

Looking at the broad picture, Hillary Rodham Clinton should do well in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. She’s also been leading in California.

Barack Obama should win Illinois and likely will win run strong in southern states like Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. He also has been opening a network of field offices in mid- and smaller-sized states, including Minnesota. So he might do well in the string of midwestern and western states, countering much of Clinton’s success in the bigger states.

John Edwards should be competitive in the southern states and presumably will collect delegates in many of the midwestern and western states.

An excellent, state-by-state analysis on the Daily Kos, reaches this conclusion:

– Clinton wins 819 delegates.
– Obama wins 763.
– Edwards wins 92.

So where would that put things by the end of the night?

The AP has been tracking endorsements by superdelegates and, with the states that have voted to date, Clinton has about 200 delegates (mostly superdelegates), Obama has about 100 and Edwards has more than 50.

If the Daily Kos analysis is close to accurate, Clinton would pass the 1,000 delegate mark, Obama would have close to 900 and Edwards would have about 150.

Under this scenario, Clinton wouldn’t even have half the 2,025 delegates needed for nomination.
And more than 40 percent of the delegates would still be up for grabs as the remaining states take their turn all the way until early June.

As the Kos analysis says, this would put us in an unprecedented situation, at least in recent decades, with two candidates neck-and-neck — and a third candidate holding enough delegates to tip the balance between the other two.

The Republicans
If you think the Democratic race is tough to figure out, wait until you see the Republicans’ rules and scenarios.

First, the facts: 21 states, 1,059 delegates. Same big states as the Democrats, and Minnesota, too.

But unlike the essentially uniform Democratic rules, the Republican delegate-selection rules vary from state to state.

A key difference is that 10 states are winner-take-all, including two of the biggest states — New York and New Jersey. All totaled, those 10 states have 419 delegates, or about a fifth of all delegates up that day.

But the remaining states have a hodgepodge of rules, from Massachusetts with statewide proportional to Tennessee with proportional distribution at the district level (unless the district winner exceeds 50%, in which it’s winner take all) plus a proportional distribution of at-large/bonus delegates (unless the winner exceeds 50% statewide, in which case it’s winner take all for those delegates).

Like the Democrats, it’s hard to see any of the leading Republicans running away with it on Super Tuesday. The mix of rules and the scattering of states in different regions of the country seems to preclude that.

One real possibility is the resurgence of Rudy Giuliani. This is the day his national strategy succeeds or fails. He could very well win the combined 153 delegates in winner-take-all New York and New Jersey. Throw in Connecticut, and he wins 180 delegates. And if he does well in Florida on Jan. 29, he could be back among the frontrunners.

Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson should collect a lot of southern delegates, although John McCain could do well among the military veterans and moderates in those states, as he did in winning South Carolina.

Mitt Romney should do well in some of the western states.

And right now, McCain is leading in California polls. In addition, his state, Arizona, is voting on Super Tuesday.

The upshot is that if there’s a fairly even division of delegates on that day, we could have a situation where no GOP candidate has more than about a quarter of the 1,191 delegates needed for nomination.

I haven’t seen a current, detailed, state-by-state analysis of the Republican Super Tuesday race, like Kos has for the Dems. If anyone is aware of one, please share it.

In the meantime, Super Tuesday is shaping up a fascinating day, but perhaps not the day of decision that it initially appeared to be.

I’ll close by passing along this summation of Super Tuesday by my colleague Will Tacy, editor of StarTribune.com: “It’s all crazy and the Republicans’ process is even crazier than the Democrats’ and trying to predict anything makes your head hurt.”

Even so, anyone game for making predictions — for Super Tuesday and beyond?

Polls in Iowa continue to show Mike Huckabee in the lead, but his margin has narrowed in the past week.

In the Democratic race, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be making a comeback.

Sen. John McCain

Last week, Huckabee led in the last four polls, with leads ranging from 5 points to 16 points. Now, looking at the six most recent polls, his biggest lead is 8 points — in ABC/Washington Post, CNN and American Research Group. The American Research Group poll was the most recent, taken Dec. 16-19.

The most striking thing about that poll is Sen. John McCain’s amazing surge — from 9 percent at the end of November to 20 percent now. It also shows Mitt Romney in freefall, down to 17 percent.

But Strategic Vision (Dec. 16-18), showed Romney doing much better. He had 25 percent, to Huckabee’s 31 percent, and McCain was way back at 8 percent. Strategic Vision also had Fred Thompson at 16 percent, far higher than any other poll had him.

And one poll, Insider Advantage (Dec. 16-17), had Romney in first, by a statistically insignificent 3 points over Huckabee.

Among Democrats, Clinton appears to have made up ground on Sen. Barack Obama. A week ago, Obama held leads of 8 and 9 points over Clinton. Now, the average of the six most recent polls shows the race a tie. Clinton comes in first in three polls (American Research Group, CNN and Rasmussen), with insignificant leads of 2 to 4 points, and Obama lands in first place in the other three (Strategic Vision, Insider Advantage and ABC/Wash Post), with equally insignificant leads of 1 to 4 points.

In New Hampshire, Romney continues to hold the lead, but it’s slipping. Last week, he led in the last four polls by 12-15 points. Now, in the four most recent polls, he holds leads of 3, 4 and 7 points, and the remaining poll (American Research Group) is a tie with McCain.

One thing that hasn’t changed is Huckabee’s support — which is virtually unchanged at about 10 percent.

Among Democrats in New Hampshire, the race remains just as confusing as it was a week ago. Clinton leads in three of the five most recent polls. But in the last two, one was a tie and Obama held a slight edge in the other — just a 2-point lead.

The landscape continues to shift rapidly in Iowa, where recent polls show Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee with gaps over their rivals.

Or, in Obama’s case, maybe not.

Barack Obama

Polling in advance of a caucus is a challenge, because there are a smaller number of caucus-goers than, say, voters in a general election, or even a primary. About 150,000 Democrats and 80,000 Republicans are expected to show up on the night of Thursday, Jan. 3.

Trying to figure out which candidate people support is merely the second task for pollsters. The first task is figuring out who will give up Grey’s Anatomy to do their civic duty.

So it’s not a big surprise that polls are showing a wide spread in results.

In Iowa, for example, Strategic Vision found Obama leading Hillary Rodham Clinton 33 percent to 25 percent, just barely within the poll’s margin of sampling error (The poll was taken 12/08-10; with 600 Likely Voters; with a MoE +/-4.5).

And the Quad City Times had Obama up by 9 points, with 33 percent, to Clinton’s and John Edwards’ 24 percent (12/10-13; 500 LV; MoE 4.5).

But another poll taken at about the same time, by The Hotline, shows the race a tie between Obama and Clinton at 27, with Edwards trailing at 22. (12/07-12; 569 LV; MoE 4)

Finally, Rasmussen has Clinton in the lead 29-26 over Obama, with Edwards again at 22. (12/10; 1106 LV; MoE 3).

On the Republican side, it’s a lot less complicated. It’s Huckabee, Huckabee, Huckabee and Huckabee. His margins range from 5 points (Strategic Vision) to 16 points (Rasmussen) in the last four polls. The big question for Huckabee is whether his newfound popularity will be matched by his supporters actually showing up at caucuses.

Mike Huckabee

Mitt Romney receives 22 to 25 percent support in the polls, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson are at about 10 percent, and John McCain is at about 6 percent.

In New Hampshire, it’s a different story, with Romney holding leads of 12 to 15 points in the last four polls (FOX News, Concord Monitor, Rassmussen, Suffolk U/WHDH.) McCain comes in second in three of the four.

But the Democratic race is a muddle in New Hampshire, just as it is in Iowa. Clinton leads by 7 points (Suffolk U/WHDH) and 9 points (FOX), but Obama leads by 1 (Concord) and 3 (Rasmussen).

Nationwide, it’s as it’s always been — Clinton and Giuliani leading their respective fields, although Huckabee now has gained a toehold in one poll — Rasmussen’s 4-day tracking poll, where he holds a 2-point margin over Giuliani.

For more on these and other polls, go to Real Clear Politics, an excellent resource for polls.

Just a few months ago, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee shared the anonymity of the handful of other back-of-the-pack Republican presidential candidates. In recent weeks, he’s registered a stunning climb in the polls.

Mike Huckabee

And after Wednesday night’s You Tube/CNN debate, he’s bound to get another huge boost — perhaps enough to propel him to victory in Iowa.

He had what appears, at least in the immediate aftermath, to have been a breakthrough performance. He was articulate, funny, homespun and perhaps more than any other candidate he exuded a confidence and sense of comfort in who he is and what he believes. (John McCain and Fred Thompson came close behind.)

Perhaps Huckabee struggled a bit to explain his support for scholarships for children of illegal aliens. But after that he scored on virtually every question. He was direct and unapologetic and registered high on the likeability scale.

Mitt Romney may have fared the worst. He’s already suspect among many Republicans for his evolution on key issues. And his performance could not have helped any in allaying those concerns. He stumbled, stammered and didn’t seem to know what he believed on some key issues, and at times his first instinct seemed to be to duck and weave.

Some other observations:

I’ll take the citizen-submitted video format and Anderson Cooper over Wolf Blitzer and Tim Russert any day.

Even so, while the questions were generally good, this batch of videos wasn’t as creative or surprising as the batch used in the Democratic debate.

I was surprised they didn’t use Minnesota’s Billiam the Snowman, given that this debate almost didn’t happen because of opposition to Billiam.

I was disappointed that they didn’t use a Red State Update video question, as they did in the Democratic debate. Those guys are hilarious. To see their work, go to their website here.

But this video, I thought, did stand out.

So what did you think of the debate? Do you think Huckabee will get the biggest bounce? And what did you think of Thompson submitting an attack ad for his own video? What else caught your attention?

Mitt and Ann Romney

In a new TV ad that will start running today in Iowa, Ann Romney says: “Mitt says his greatest success is being able to say ‘I have been a good father, and a good husband.’ ”

That message will be heard loud and clear by those attending the Values Voters conference in Washington today. And Rudy Giuliani will take note, too.

Romney and Giuliani, in fact all of the GOP presidential candidates, are scheduled to speak to this gathering of Christian conservatives, sponsored by groups such as the Family Research Council and Focus on the Family.

James Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family, was among a number of conservative leaders who recently talked openly of splitting from the Republican Party and backing a third-party candidate if Giuliani wins the GOP nomination. Giuliani’s support of abortion rights and gay rights, as well as his un-Romney-like personal life, is causing great unease among many conservatives.

The timing of Romney’s ad, which features his wife and a blur of active, happy Romney kids and grandkids, seemingly more than there are enrolled in SCHIP, is no coincidence. You can see the ad, titled “Our Home,” here.

In his speech tonight, Romney is expected to stress family themes, the Boston Globe reports in this story.

Here are a number of other recent stories and analyses about what’s at stake at the gathering.

The New York Times says in its Caucus blog that Romney and Fred Thompson have the most riding on the conference, because many conservatives have doubts about them, too.

Rudy Giuliani in Minneapolis

The American Prospect’s Adele M. Stan gives Giuliani this much: “the guy’s got moxie.” She also looks back at last years Values Voters Summit.

The Tory Anarchist (Daniel McCarthy, a contributing editor to The American Conservative) says in this posting that the religious right really hasn’t gone after Giuliani in the way they did, for example, in 1995 when they quashed Collin Powell. The reason: “they know they can’t stop him.”

If there is a third-party run, it won’t be John McCain leading the way. He pledged on Thursday to back the nominee. Here’s the AP story on Politically Connected.

Given that this key Republican constituency has deep concerns about Giuliani, can he win the GOP nomination?

Is he the GOP’s strongest candidate, or does a Giuliani nomination ensure a fracture within the party and guarantee a Democratic victory?

Or is there a third-party coalition — and a candidate to lead it — that could win?