Here’s what the polls are saying on the weekend before Super Tuesday.

First the Republicans. Sen. John McCain continues to run strong and, if the polls reflect the actual results, he’s likely to win far more delegates than Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee.

Of the 11 Super Tuesday states with recent polls, McCain leads or is in a dead heat in 10 of them. The only one he seems certain to lose is Massachusetts, where former Gov. Romney holds a 25-point lead.

Romney generally runs second to McCain, except in three southern states — Missouri, Oklahoma and Alabama — where Huckabee is running a close second to the Arizona senator.

In the five winner-take all state with current polling, McCain leads in all them.

In New York (101 delegates), New Jersey (52) and Connecticut (27), McCain is up by more than 20 points.

In his home state of Arizona (53 winner-take-all), in Illinois (70), and in Oklahoma (41) he leads by more 10 points. And in Missouri (58 winner-take-all), he’s ahead of Huckabee by 7 points.

California, with 173 delegates at stake, is essentially a dead heat. That’s good news for Romney, who had been trailing in the polls. But surveys since the GOP debate at the Reagan Library in California last Wednesday have been either a tie or well within the margin of sampling error, indicating that Romney has been surging.

Romney also has a good chance of picking up some of the smaller (delegate count) states in the west, including Utah, Montana and perhaps Colorado.

Currently, McCain leads in the delegate race, with 93 won so far. Romney has 77 and Huckabee has 40.

On the Democratic side, the “national primary” looks extremely close between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

They are each running well ahead in the states they represent in the Senate — Clinton in New York and Obama in Illinois (Clinton’s native state). But Obama is running stronger in New York (trailing by 20 points) than Clinton is in Illinois (where she trails by 30 points).

That’s important because Democrats apportion all their delegates based on each candidate’s vote total in a state, so Obama stands to win a fair amount of New York’s 281 delegates. Illinois has 185 delegates at stake.

Georgia (103 delegates) is the only other state that Obama holds a significant lead, nearly 15 points.

Clinton, meanwhile, enjoys double-digit leads in Tennessee (85 delegates) and Massachusetts (121), although it’s unclear whether the Sen. Ted and Caroline Kennedy endorsements will boost Obama in the state.

In the other states with recent polling, the gap between Obama and Clinton is 6 points or less — meaning that they’re essentially dead heats. Those states are Connecticut (60), Missouri (88), Alamaba (60) and Arizona (67).

Ditto for the most delegate-rich state — California, with 441.

The fact that California is a toss-up shows that the momentum is shifting to Obama. As late as a couple of weeks ago, Clinton had double-digit leads in most California polls.

Currently, Clinton leads in the delegate race. Although Obama has won more pledged delegates in state primaries and caucuses (63 to Clinton’s 48), Clinton has more delegates supporting her thanks to the endorsements of Superdelegates (party leaders, members of Congress and the like). AP has Clinton at 261 total delegates, and Obama at 190.

There was lot to chew on from tonight’s GOP debate, but let’s focus on the main point of disagreement between Sen. John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Who do you agree with on the question of whether Romney favored a timetable for withdrawing from Iraq?

This question surfaced days before Florida voted, and it flared up in the debate. McCain argues that Romney supported timetables when, in April, as President Bush was about to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Malaki, Romney said Bush and Iraqi leaders “have to have a series of timetables and milestones that they speak about” in private.

The comment came during an interview on Good Morning America by Robin Roberts.

Here’s the conversation.

ROBERTS: “Do you believe that there should be a timetable in withdrawing the troops?”
ROMNEY: “Well, there’s no question that the president and Prime Minister al-Maliki have to have a series of timetables and milestones that they speak about. But those shouldn’t be for public pronouncement. You don’t want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you’re going to be gone. You want to have a series of things you want to see accomplished in terms of the strength of the Iraqi military and the Iraqi police, and the leadership of the Iraqi government.”
ROBERTS: “So, private. You wouldn’t do it publicly? Because the president has said flat out that he will veto anything the Congress passes about a timetable for troop withdrawals. As president, would you do the same?”
ROMNEY: “Well, of course. Can you imagine a setting where during the Second World War we said to the Germans, gee, if we haven’t reached the Rhine by this date, why, we’ll go home, or if we haven’t gotten this accomplished we’ll pull up and leave? You don’t publish that to your enemy, or they just simply lie in wait until that time. So, of course you have to work together to create timetables and milestones, but you don’t do that with the opposition.”

Romney says now that he was referring to benchmarks that would need to be met before troops are withdrawn, and that McCain is twisting his words.

In the debate, Romney said McCain raised the allegation only days before Florida’s vote, deliberately leaving him no time to respond and correct the misinformation. McCain’s action “sort of falls into the dirty tricks that I think Ronald Reagan would have found reprehensible,” Romney said tonight.

McCain insisted that his interpretation was correct. He also criticized Romney for declining to take a stand on the timetable question when he was asked about it in December 2006 — taking a pass on the grounds that he was just a governor.

McMain reminded everyone that this happened right after Democrats won sweeping victories in the 2006 election, and timetable was the Democratic buzzword.

McMain said that he put his political career on the line by rejecting timetables, pushing for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s removal and advocating the troop-level surge, because he was certain those steps were the right things to do.

McCain’s point is that he proved his courage, leadership and acumen on Iraq while Romney at best dodged the issue and, according to McCain, actually endorsed setting timetables. (Here’s McCain’s press release supporting his argument.)

This is a classic case of the facts not being in dispute. Romney is correct that he never talked about a date or a specific timeframe for withdrawal, like many Democrats were. But McCain is also correct in saying that he has been clear and unwavering on the topic, and that Romney has been less so.

So how would you referee this dispute? Who’s telling the truth, or is at least closest to it?

Just a few weeks ago, Super Tuesday was looking like it might leave the GOP presidential race just as muddied as it has been for weeks. But now, that “national primary” is looking more and more like the day that Sen. John McCain builds a commanding lead in the race for the Republican nomination.

In the most important Super Tuesday states, McCain is riding high.

Nowhere is that more evident than in New York. Once conceded to Rudy Giuliani, the state now appears to be solidily behind McCain. This USA Today/Gallup Poll shows McCain 19 points ahead of Giuliani and 23 points ahead of Mitt Romney. And that was before the tailwind that McCain presumably will get as he leaves Florida.

Sen. John McCain celebrates Florida win

The key thing to remember is that New York, like Florida, is a winner-take-all state — and it’s the biggest winner-take-all on Super Tuesday. With a win in New York, McCain would collect 101 delegates — or nearly a tenth of the number of delegates needed for nomination.

McCain is leading in polls in other key winner-take-all states.

New Jersey polls show McCain with a slim edge over Giuliani — but with a 2-to-1 or even nearly a 3-to-1 margin over Romney. If Giuliani quits the race, McCain should cruise to an easy win in New Jersey, and claim all 52 delegates.

McCain’s state of Arizona is also voting, and it’s also winner-take-all, with 53 delegates. Connecticut means 27 delegates for the winner, and McCain is ahead there, too.

California is the biggest state on Super Tuesday, with 173 delegates, and McCain has been holding a steady lead in polls there for weeks. California apportions delegates among the candidates, so McCain and Romney are likely to split most of those delegates between them.

In other Feb. 5 states that have recent polling:

– McCain enjoys significant leads in Illinois (70 delegates) and Oklahoma (41).
– Romney leads in Colorado (46) and Massachusetts (43).
– Mike Huckabee leads in Georgia (72) and Tennessee (55).
– There’s a virtual tie in Missouri (58 winner-take-all) and Alabama (48) between McCain and Huckabee.

What this seems to add up to is the very real possibility that McCain could win hundreds of more delegates on Super Tuesday than Romney and Huckabee.

But that could still leave him well short of the 1,191 needed to win the nomination.

On the one hand, it would give him the biggest claim on the nomination. On the other hand, if Huckabee wins Missouri’s 58 delegates and scores big wins in the southern states, and if Romney does well in the midwestern and western states, could they still have enough muscle to block McCain’s nomination?

And if they thought they might be able to block his nomination, would they try to do so? Or would they urge the nomination of McCain for the sake of a unified front against the Democratic nominee?

On the eve of Florida’s primary, Rudy Giuliani’s legs are showing signs of buckling. Starting with tomorrow’s winner-take-all contest in Florida, Giuliani faces an eight-day stretch that could make or break his candidacy.

He’s been a non-factor in each of the states that have held primaries or caucuses so far, collecting only a single delegate, according to the Associated Press count.

And now, if the polls in Florida prove to be accurate, he’s going to finish third at best and would head into Super Tuesday with a growing sense of doom.

AP Photo

It’s been a stunning collapse for the one-time frontrunner. Here are a few stats to put it in perspective.

In 41 polls taken by a dozen different pollsters between early March and the end of November last year, Giuliani led in every one.

In most of those polls, his lead was in the double digits.

In April, he recorded a 23-point lead over the field.

Now, McCain and Romney are tied, and Giuliani is trailing them by about 10 points.

Florida is a winner-take-all state, meaning that someone will walk away 57 delegates richer. (Florida normally would have twice that many delegates, but half were stripped by the national party because the state scheduled its primary too early.)

With one delegate so far — won last Saturday in Nevada — a Giuliani win in Florida would instantly resuscitate his campaign — putting him only one delegate behind the GOP leader — Mitt Romney with 59 delegates.

Perhaps more important, a Florida win could help Giuliani hold off John McCain in New York and New Jersey on Feb. 5’s Super Tuesday. Those two winner-take-all states hold a total of 153 delegates (101 in N.Y. and 52 in N.J.).

Earlier, those two states were seen as Giuliani strongholds, and the lynchpin of his Super Tuesday strategy. Now, Giuliani and McCain are running even in those two states in recent polls.

If Giuliani can win Florida and then New York and New Jersey, and does reasonably well in other Super Tuesday states, he could possibly emerge with the most delegates.

If he loses those three big states, it’s hard to see how his candidacy survives.

So, before Giuliani bows out, here are a choice readings.

Here’s the New York Times editorial (registration required) endorsing McCain and describing Giuliani as “a narrow, obsessively secretive, vindictive man who saw no need to limit police power. Racial polarization was as much a legacy of his tenure as the rebirth of Times Square… Mr. Giuliani’s arrogance and bad judgment are breathtaking.”

And here’s a NYT story exploring that vindictive streak.

And here’s a case made on Townhall.com for Fred Thompson supporters to back Giuliani in Florida because he most closely aligns with Thompson on key issues.

And finally, much has been written and said recently about Giuliani’s Super Tuesday national-primary strategy, leaving the impression that that was his plan from the start. But this column by the Baltimore Sun’s Washington Bureau Chief makes the case that Giuliani did not initially plan on banking on a win in Florida — and that he, in fact, campaigned doggedly in the early states, but simply was rejected by voters.

Before the voting started, the consensus was that the presidential nominations would be settled by the earlier-than-ever Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

Now, with that day fast approaching, it’s looking more and more likely that nothing will be settled on Super Tuesday — in either party.

Because the 24 states voting that day have widely divergent demographics and interests, and because the delegate-distribution rules tilt toward apportioning them — rather than winner-take-all — it’s hard to see how any candidate in either party would secure the nomination that night.

At best, a candidate may take a commanding lead — but perhaps still be only about halfway to locking up the number of delegates needed for the nomination.

Here’s a look at the key rules and some possible scenarios in each party’s race on Super Tuesday.

The Democrats
There are 22 states holding Democratic primaries or caucuses, plus American Samoa and Democrats Abroad get to pick delegates, too. All totaled, there are 1,697 pledged delegates up for grabs that day, according to the AP. (That does not count the unpledged, superdelegates those states also have, but who are not selected through the Super Tuesday voting.)

The biggest states are California (370 pledged delegates), New York (232), Illinois (153) and New Jersey (107). Minnesota is the seventh largest state that day (72 pledged delegates, tied with Missouri).

In each state, 75% of the delegates are chosen at the congressional district (or lower) level, and the rest are at-large.

Also, any candidate who receives at least 15% of the vote collects delegates. You can read the rules here.

So, in order to analyze Super Tuesday, you’d need to do a congressional-district-by-congressional-district calculation.

Looking at the broad picture, Hillary Rodham Clinton should do well in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. She’s also been leading in California.

Barack Obama should win Illinois and likely will win run strong in southern states like Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. He also has been opening a network of field offices in mid- and smaller-sized states, including Minnesota. So he might do well in the string of midwestern and western states, countering much of Clinton’s success in the bigger states.

John Edwards should be competitive in the southern states and presumably will collect delegates in many of the midwestern and western states.

An excellent, state-by-state analysis on the Daily Kos, reaches this conclusion:

– Clinton wins 819 delegates.
– Obama wins 763.
– Edwards wins 92.

So where would that put things by the end of the night?

The AP has been tracking endorsements by superdelegates and, with the states that have voted to date, Clinton has about 200 delegates (mostly superdelegates), Obama has about 100 and Edwards has more than 50.

If the Daily Kos analysis is close to accurate, Clinton would pass the 1,000 delegate mark, Obama would have close to 900 and Edwards would have about 150.

Under this scenario, Clinton wouldn’t even have half the 2,025 delegates needed for nomination.
And more than 40 percent of the delegates would still be up for grabs as the remaining states take their turn all the way until early June.

As the Kos analysis says, this would put us in an unprecedented situation, at least in recent decades, with two candidates neck-and-neck — and a third candidate holding enough delegates to tip the balance between the other two.

The Republicans
If you think the Democratic race is tough to figure out, wait until you see the Republicans’ rules and scenarios.

First, the facts: 21 states, 1,059 delegates. Same big states as the Democrats, and Minnesota, too.

But unlike the essentially uniform Democratic rules, the Republican delegate-selection rules vary from state to state.

A key difference is that 10 states are winner-take-all, including two of the biggest states — New York and New Jersey. All totaled, those 10 states have 419 delegates, or about a fifth of all delegates up that day.

But the remaining states have a hodgepodge of rules, from Massachusetts with statewide proportional to Tennessee with proportional distribution at the district level (unless the district winner exceeds 50%, in which it’s winner take all) plus a proportional distribution of at-large/bonus delegates (unless the winner exceeds 50% statewide, in which case it’s winner take all for those delegates).

Like the Democrats, it’s hard to see any of the leading Republicans running away with it on Super Tuesday. The mix of rules and the scattering of states in different regions of the country seems to preclude that.

One real possibility is the resurgence of Rudy Giuliani. This is the day his national strategy succeeds or fails. He could very well win the combined 153 delegates in winner-take-all New York and New Jersey. Throw in Connecticut, and he wins 180 delegates. And if he does well in Florida on Jan. 29, he could be back among the frontrunners.

Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson should collect a lot of southern delegates, although John McCain could do well among the military veterans and moderates in those states, as he did in winning South Carolina.

Mitt Romney should do well in some of the western states.

And right now, McCain is leading in California polls. In addition, his state, Arizona, is voting on Super Tuesday.

The upshot is that if there’s a fairly even division of delegates on that day, we could have a situation where no GOP candidate has more than about a quarter of the 1,191 delegates needed for nomination.

I haven’t seen a current, detailed, state-by-state analysis of the Republican Super Tuesday race, like Kos has for the Dems. If anyone is aware of one, please share it.

In the meantime, Super Tuesday is shaping up a fascinating day, but perhaps not the day of decision that it initially appeared to be.

I’ll close by passing along this summation of Super Tuesday by my colleague Will Tacy, editor of StarTribune.com: “It’s all crazy and the Republicans’ process is even crazier than the Democrats’ and trying to predict anything makes your head hurt.”

Even so, anyone game for making predictions — for Super Tuesday and beyond?

For former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the New Hampshire primary was in his backyard. Tomorrow’s Michigan primary brings him back home.

Romney was raised in Michigan, where his father George was an auto executive and governor. Romney relies on an old black and white photo of him and his dad as the closing shot in an ad he’s running in the state.

Mitt Romney with his parents George and Lenore (AP Photo)

On the eve of the election, here’s a summary of the race in Michigan.

POLLS
The polls show an extremely tight contest, with Romney and Sen. John McCain battling for first place. But former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is also a factor; he generally trails in third place, but easily within striking distance of winning the race.

Two polls released Sunday show Romney with leads of 8 points (Mason-Dixon) and 5 points (Detroit Free Press). Meanwhile, the Detroit News and Mitchell Research show McCain up by 1 point.

ENDORSEMENTS
McCain secured the endorsements of the Detroit Free Press and the Detroit News.

Romney won the recommendations of the Grand Rapids Press and the Oakland Press.

DELEGATES
Normally, 60 delegates would be at stake, but because Michigan was among the states that moved up its primary without permission, the Republican Party has said it would seat only half the state’s delegates at the national covention in St. Paul. So that leaves 30 delegates up for grabs.

On the Democratic side, the party voted in December to strip Michigan of all its delegates to the national covention in Denver. That’s why the Democratic contest in Michigan is meaningless. Barack Obama and John Edwards won’t even be on the ballot.

PRIMARY RULES
Voters don’t have to be registered in either party to vote in that party’s primary; they simply walk into the polling location and ask for a Republican or a Democratic ballot. The lack of a true Democratic contest frees Michigan Democrats to support their favorite Republican — which most likely would be McCain — or to cause havoc by voting for the Republican they consider the least electable come November.

THE 2000 PRIMARY
The last time there was a contested GOP primary in Michigan, John McCain won. He defeated George W. Bush, 50 percent to 43 percent.

Back in the summer, Sen. John McCain was on the verge of slipping down into single digits in New Hampshire polls. In July, August and September, he polled 10 to 12 percent in four consecutive polls by different pollsters.

Sen. John McCain and his wife Cindy in N.H. (Photo by Andrew Foxwell)

Now he’s leading the pack with triple the level of support he had in the summer.

Two polls released over the weekend show him with 33 percent (CNN/WMUR/UNH) and 35 percent (Concord Monitor). In both polls, the Arizona Republican holds a 6-point lead over Mitt Romney.

Iowa winner Mike Huckabee still doesn’t seem to be a threat to win New Hampshire, where there are fewer evangelical voters. Huckabee finishes in third place in the Concord Monitor poll with 13 percent, ahead of Rudy Giuliani. In the CNN poll, Giuliani finishes in third with 14 percent, just ahead of Huckabee.

Those two polls show the Democratic race a dead heat between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton. It’s 34-33 percent for Obama in the Concord Monitor poll and 33-33 in the CNN poll.

Obama in N.H. this weekend (Photo by Lauren Melcher)

John Edwards lags at 23 percent in the Concord poll and 20 percent in CNN’s.

A third weekend poll, by American Research Group, has McCain up by 14 and Obama up by 12 points. But this organization regularly produces wild results. It showed Clinton up by 9 on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, although it also showed Huckabee up by 5 in that poll.

An interesting dynamic to watch in this race is the battle between McCain and Obama for the independent vote. In New Hampshire, independent voters can choose to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primaries. In 2000, they were drawn to the Republican contest and were the key to McCain’s victory over George Bush.

But this year, many independent voters are indicating they’ll vote in the Democratic primary for Obama. If that happens in large numbers, it could bleed votes away from McCain.

With just four days to go before the Iowa Caucuses, Mitt Romney appears to catching Mike Huckabee in the Republican race, while the Democratic race remains extremely tight.

On the Republican side, it looked just a couple of weeks ago like Huckabee was running away with the contest. Now, Romney’s attack ads against Huckabee on immigration and crime appear to be taking a toll on the former Arkansas governor.

Last week, Huckabee held an average 5.2 percentage point lead in the six most recent polls. Now, Romney holds an average 0.6 percentage point lead in the five most recent polls.

But the polls show widely different results. For example, the Quad City Times poll taken Dec. 26-27, shows Huckabee up by 7 points (34-27 percent) over Romney. Yet, the American Research Group poll taken Dec. 26-28 shows Romney leading by 9 points (32-23) over Huckabee. (A week ago, American Research Group had Huckabee ahead by 8 points, so this poll is showing a dramatic reversal.)

None of the other major GOP candidates are showing much movement — with all of them pulling support of about 11 percent or less.

In the Democratic race, it continues to be a tight three-way race. Averaging the last five polls, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards are all within 2.6 points of one another — well within the margins of error. The averages show Clinton with 28.4, Obama with 26.4 and Edwards with 25.8 percent.

Those numbers are probably most encouraging to Edwards; he’s on the upswing in the past week, while Clinton and Obama have tipped downward ever so slightly.

In New Hampshire, it’s a two-way tie between Clinton and Obama. On the Republican side, Romney leads, but Sen. John McCain has the big momentum.

For more details on these and other polls, go to Real Clear Politics.

And finally, if you haven’t checked out our new blog, Oles in ‘08, you’ve got a lot of fun reading ahead of you. Students from St. Olaf College are working on campaigns in New Hampshire and they’ve written about their encounters with candidates — impressed with McCain, bored by Rudy Giuliani — and with voters, many of whom sound like they’re on the breaking point from the incessant phone calls and door-knocks from the campaigns. It’s great, insightful and fun reading. Check it out here — Oles in ‘08.

Polls in Iowa continue to show Mike Huckabee in the lead, but his margin has narrowed in the past week.

In the Democratic race, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be making a comeback.

Sen. John McCain

Last week, Huckabee led in the last four polls, with leads ranging from 5 points to 16 points. Now, looking at the six most recent polls, his biggest lead is 8 points — in ABC/Washington Post, CNN and American Research Group. The American Research Group poll was the most recent, taken Dec. 16-19.

The most striking thing about that poll is Sen. John McCain’s amazing surge — from 9 percent at the end of November to 20 percent now. It also shows Mitt Romney in freefall, down to 17 percent.

But Strategic Vision (Dec. 16-18), showed Romney doing much better. He had 25 percent, to Huckabee’s 31 percent, and McCain was way back at 8 percent. Strategic Vision also had Fred Thompson at 16 percent, far higher than any other poll had him.

And one poll, Insider Advantage (Dec. 16-17), had Romney in first, by a statistically insignificent 3 points over Huckabee.

Among Democrats, Clinton appears to have made up ground on Sen. Barack Obama. A week ago, Obama held leads of 8 and 9 points over Clinton. Now, the average of the six most recent polls shows the race a tie. Clinton comes in first in three polls (American Research Group, CNN and Rasmussen), with insignificant leads of 2 to 4 points, and Obama lands in first place in the other three (Strategic Vision, Insider Advantage and ABC/Wash Post), with equally insignificant leads of 1 to 4 points.

In New Hampshire, Romney continues to hold the lead, but it’s slipping. Last week, he led in the last four polls by 12-15 points. Now, in the four most recent polls, he holds leads of 3, 4 and 7 points, and the remaining poll (American Research Group) is a tie with McCain.

One thing that hasn’t changed is Huckabee’s support — which is virtually unchanged at about 10 percent.

Among Democrats in New Hampshire, the race remains just as confusing as it was a week ago. Clinton leads in three of the five most recent polls. But in the last two, one was a tie and Obama held a slight edge in the other — just a 2-point lead.

In our story today by political reporter Bob von Sternberg, he notes the miracle of the season: all the candidates have shelved their attack ads and are flooding the airwaves with joyous, holiday-themed and upbeat ads.

If you lament negativity in political ads, enjoy this brief respite. Here, for your viewing pleasure, are the ads brimming with good will.

First the holiday-themed ads.

Here’s John McCain’s ad, called “My Christmas Story,” about a touching gesture an enemy guard made on a Christmas Day when McCain was a P.O.W.

Here’s John Edwards’ ad, in which he says this is “the season of miracles, and faith and love.”

Here’s Mike Huckabee’s ad, with a not-so-subliminal white cross in the background, formed by bookshelves.

In Barack Obama’s ad, titled “Friendship,” his wife and daughters are featured.

Rudy Giuliani mixes a dose of humor into his holiday ad, titled “Same Gift.”

Hillary Rodham Clinton spends billions on Christmas gifts in her ad, titled “Presents.”

Now, the upbeat ones without the strong holiday connection.

Joe Biden’s is called “January Night.”

Mitt Romney’s ad, “Searched,” is a testimonial from a former business partner, who describes how Romney shut down their business and brought all the employees to New York City to search for the partner’s missing daughter.