Back in the summer, Sen. John McCain was on the verge of slipping down into single digits in New Hampshire polls. In July, August and September, he polled 10 to 12 percent in four consecutive polls by different pollsters.

Sen. John McCain and his wife Cindy in N.H. (Photo by Andrew Foxwell)

Now he’s leading the pack with triple the level of support he had in the summer.

Two polls released over the weekend show him with 33 percent (CNN/WMUR/UNH) and 35 percent (Concord Monitor). In both polls, the Arizona Republican holds a 6-point lead over Mitt Romney.

Iowa winner Mike Huckabee still doesn’t seem to be a threat to win New Hampshire, where there are fewer evangelical voters. Huckabee finishes in third place in the Concord Monitor poll with 13 percent, ahead of Rudy Giuliani. In the CNN poll, Giuliani finishes in third with 14 percent, just ahead of Huckabee.

Those two polls show the Democratic race a dead heat between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton. It’s 34-33 percent for Obama in the Concord Monitor poll and 33-33 in the CNN poll.

Obama in N.H. this weekend (Photo by Lauren Melcher)

John Edwards lags at 23 percent in the Concord poll and 20 percent in CNN’s.

A third weekend poll, by American Research Group, has McCain up by 14 and Obama up by 12 points. But this organization regularly produces wild results. It showed Clinton up by 9 on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, although it also showed Huckabee up by 5 in that poll.

An interesting dynamic to watch in this race is the battle between McCain and Obama for the independent vote. In New Hampshire, independent voters can choose to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primaries. In 2000, they were drawn to the Republican contest and were the key to McCain’s victory over George Bush.

But this year, many independent voters are indicating they’ll vote in the Democratic primary for Obama. If that happens in large numbers, it could bleed votes away from McCain.

With just four days to go before the Iowa Caucuses, Mitt Romney appears to catching Mike Huckabee in the Republican race, while the Democratic race remains extremely tight.

On the Republican side, it looked just a couple of weeks ago like Huckabee was running away with the contest. Now, Romney’s attack ads against Huckabee on immigration and crime appear to be taking a toll on the former Arkansas governor.

Last week, Huckabee held an average 5.2 percentage point lead in the six most recent polls. Now, Romney holds an average 0.6 percentage point lead in the five most recent polls.

But the polls show widely different results. For example, the Quad City Times poll taken Dec. 26-27, shows Huckabee up by 7 points (34-27 percent) over Romney. Yet, the American Research Group poll taken Dec. 26-28 shows Romney leading by 9 points (32-23) over Huckabee. (A week ago, American Research Group had Huckabee ahead by 8 points, so this poll is showing a dramatic reversal.)

None of the other major GOP candidates are showing much movement — with all of them pulling support of about 11 percent or less.

In the Democratic race, it continues to be a tight three-way race. Averaging the last five polls, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards are all within 2.6 points of one another — well within the margins of error. The averages show Clinton with 28.4, Obama with 26.4 and Edwards with 25.8 percent.

Those numbers are probably most encouraging to Edwards; he’s on the upswing in the past week, while Clinton and Obama have tipped downward ever so slightly.

In New Hampshire, it’s a two-way tie between Clinton and Obama. On the Republican side, Romney leads, but Sen. John McCain has the big momentum.

For more details on these and other polls, go to Real Clear Politics.

And finally, if you haven’t checked out our new blog, Oles in ‘08, you’ve got a lot of fun reading ahead of you. Students from St. Olaf College are working on campaigns in New Hampshire and they’ve written about their encounters with candidates — impressed with McCain, bored by Rudy Giuliani — and with voters, many of whom sound like they’re on the breaking point from the incessant phone calls and door-knocks from the campaigns. It’s great, insightful and fun reading. Check it out here — Oles in ‘08.

St. Olaf students blogging from New Hampshire had some amazing experiences on their first day on the presidential campaign trail.

Incredibly, two volunteering on the McCain campaign met the candidate himself in the first hour or so on the job. They’ve got pictures to prove it. Other students write about their experiences phone-calling or knocking on voters’ doors. Some voters are eager to engage the students, others turn a cold shoulder.

You can find their reports in our new blog, Oles in ‘08. The blog began yesterday, the first day the political science students began interning on the presidential campaigns in New Hampshire. Here’s a more detailed explanation of what the students are doing and about their blog.

Polls in Iowa continue to show Mike Huckabee in the lead, but his margin has narrowed in the past week.

In the Democratic race, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be making a comeback.

Sen. John McCain

Last week, Huckabee led in the last four polls, with leads ranging from 5 points to 16 points. Now, looking at the six most recent polls, his biggest lead is 8 points — in ABC/Washington Post, CNN and American Research Group. The American Research Group poll was the most recent, taken Dec. 16-19.

The most striking thing about that poll is Sen. John McCain’s amazing surge — from 9 percent at the end of November to 20 percent now. It also shows Mitt Romney in freefall, down to 17 percent.

But Strategic Vision (Dec. 16-18), showed Romney doing much better. He had 25 percent, to Huckabee’s 31 percent, and McCain was way back at 8 percent. Strategic Vision also had Fred Thompson at 16 percent, far higher than any other poll had him.

And one poll, Insider Advantage (Dec. 16-17), had Romney in first, by a statistically insignificent 3 points over Huckabee.

Among Democrats, Clinton appears to have made up ground on Sen. Barack Obama. A week ago, Obama held leads of 8 and 9 points over Clinton. Now, the average of the six most recent polls shows the race a tie. Clinton comes in first in three polls (American Research Group, CNN and Rasmussen), with insignificant leads of 2 to 4 points, and Obama lands in first place in the other three (Strategic Vision, Insider Advantage and ABC/Wash Post), with equally insignificant leads of 1 to 4 points.

In New Hampshire, Romney continues to hold the lead, but it’s slipping. Last week, he led in the last four polls by 12-15 points. Now, in the four most recent polls, he holds leads of 3, 4 and 7 points, and the remaining poll (American Research Group) is a tie with McCain.

One thing that hasn’t changed is Huckabee’s support — which is virtually unchanged at about 10 percent.

Among Democrats in New Hampshire, the race remains just as confusing as it was a week ago. Clinton leads in three of the five most recent polls. But in the last two, one was a tie and Obama held a slight edge in the other — just a 2-point lead.

In our story today by political reporter Bob von Sternberg, he notes the miracle of the season: all the candidates have shelved their attack ads and are flooding the airwaves with joyous, holiday-themed and upbeat ads.

If you lament negativity in political ads, enjoy this brief respite. Here, for your viewing pleasure, are the ads brimming with good will.

First the holiday-themed ads.

Here’s John McCain’s ad, called “My Christmas Story,” about a touching gesture an enemy guard made on a Christmas Day when McCain was a P.O.W.

Here’s John Edwards’ ad, in which he says this is “the season of miracles, and faith and love.”

Here’s Mike Huckabee’s ad, with a not-so-subliminal white cross in the background, formed by bookshelves.

In Barack Obama’s ad, titled “Friendship,” his wife and daughters are featured.

Rudy Giuliani mixes a dose of humor into his holiday ad, titled “Same Gift.”

Hillary Rodham Clinton spends billions on Christmas gifts in her ad, titled “Presents.”

Now, the upbeat ones without the strong holiday connection.

Joe Biden’s is called “January Night.”

Mitt Romney’s ad, “Searched,” is a testimonial from a former business partner, who describes how Romney shut down their business and brought all the employees to New York City to search for the partner’s missing daughter.

If you paid a higher-than-usual price for a Christmas tree this year, here’s a possible explanation: there’s been a run on them by presidential candidates looking for backdrops for their holiday TV ads.

In previous posts, I linked to Mike Huckabee’s and John Edwards’ ads. Here are two more featuring tannenbaums and candidates (Barack Obama and Rudy Giuliani), plus a Hillary Rodham Clinton ad featuring lots of Christmas wrapping paper, but no tree.

Here’s the Obama ad, titled “Friendship.”

Here’s the Giuliani ad, titled “Same Gift.”

Here’s the Clinton ad, titled “Presents.”

If you need proof that immigration has become one of the chief issues in the presidential campaign in Iowa, just look at Mitt Romney’s new ad.

When he decided he needed to stick a spoke in the wheels of Mike Huckabee’s fast-charging campaign, Romney put up an ad attacking Huckabee’s record on immigration.

The immigration issue is rising in the polls and is cropping up more and more on the campaign trail, as voters seek answers from the candidates. And that has prompted a number of news organizations to explore the issue in the last week or so.

In this story published Sunday, the Baltimore Sun described the issue as a prairie fire turned “inferno, with potentially explosive impact on the 2008 election.”

Already, it has become the defining issue in the battle between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee for first place in Iowa’s Jan. 3 presidential caucuses. But while immigration is drawing attention as a Republican issue - driven by attack and response ads on TV - it’s not solely a concern of Republican voters.

Immigration is also a worry for a significant, and possibly growing, number of Democrats and independents, too.

That’s a change from October, when a University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll of likely caucus-goers found that only 2.4 percent of Democrats picked immigration as the single most important issue. Compare that with the Iraq war at 34.9 percent and health care at 23.2 percent.

Republicans cited immigration much more often, but it was still only the fourth most mentioned issue. Terrorism was the number one issue at 21.9 percent, followed by the economy (15.8), the Iraq War (15.5) and immigration came next at 13.7 percent.

But a Rassmussen Reports poll of 789 likely Republican caucus-goers taken on Dec. 10 found that immigration was the top issue at 24 percent, just ahead of national security at 22 percent.

A story published Tuesday by the Iowa Independent, working collaboratively with the Huffington Post, presented a similar, anecdotal finding: “In a series of phone interviews conducted by Huffington Post’s OffTheBus project, 37 of Iowa’s Republican county chairs were asked to name the issues most important to GOP caucus-goers this year. Almost universally, immigration and social issues were mentioned. Asked about the Iraq War, many county chairs downplayed its significance.”

The Rasmussen poll of Democrats found that 5 percent considered immigration the top issue. That’s twice the level as the Hawkeye Poll, but still tiny compared with the 31 percent who cited the Iraq War.

Still, when a group of Iowans question candidates, they invariably ask what the candidate is going to do to stop illegal immigrants from taking away jobs at meat packing plants, in the construction sector and in other employment categories, according to news reports.

A front-page story last week in the New York Times concluded: “Nearly everyone [of the more than two dozen Iowans] interviewed said that none of the political candidates had arrived at a position on immigration that fully satisfied them. In real life, they said, the issues surrounding immigration, both legal and illegal, were far more complicated than bumper sticker slogans or jabs on a debate stage or even the carefully picked language of campaign policy papers.”

The economy, the Iraq War and terrorism are all issues that could swing wildly in importance between now and Election Day 2008, but immigration seems likely to be a reliable and perhaps unforgiving issue.

To learn more about what the candidates have said and how they’ve voted on immigration, go to the “President” page (here) on Politically Connected. When you click on a candidate’s name, you’ll find immigration as one of the issues below their biographical information.

Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee is creating a lot of buzz, not all of it positive, with a new ad wishing everyone a Merry Christmas.

Some critics are saying he’s interjecting religion into politics.

Huckabee replies: “If we are so politically correct in this country that a person can’t say enough of the nonsense with the political attack ads could we pause for a few days and say Merry Christmas to each other then we’re really, really in trouble as a country.”

As you watch the ad, notice the bookshelf in the background creating a white cross. (How can you miss it?)

See for yourself, and then tell us what you think.

The landscape continues to shift rapidly in Iowa, where recent polls show Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee with gaps over their rivals.

Or, in Obama’s case, maybe not.

Barack Obama

Polling in advance of a caucus is a challenge, because there are a smaller number of caucus-goers than, say, voters in a general election, or even a primary. About 150,000 Democrats and 80,000 Republicans are expected to show up on the night of Thursday, Jan. 3.

Trying to figure out which candidate people support is merely the second task for pollsters. The first task is figuring out who will give up Grey’s Anatomy to do their civic duty.

So it’s not a big surprise that polls are showing a wide spread in results.

In Iowa, for example, Strategic Vision found Obama leading Hillary Rodham Clinton 33 percent to 25 percent, just barely within the poll’s margin of sampling error (The poll was taken 12/08-10; with 600 Likely Voters; with a MoE +/-4.5).

And the Quad City Times had Obama up by 9 points, with 33 percent, to Clinton’s and John Edwards’ 24 percent (12/10-13; 500 LV; MoE 4.5).

But another poll taken at about the same time, by The Hotline, shows the race a tie between Obama and Clinton at 27, with Edwards trailing at 22. (12/07-12; 569 LV; MoE 4)

Finally, Rasmussen has Clinton in the lead 29-26 over Obama, with Edwards again at 22. (12/10; 1106 LV; MoE 3).

On the Republican side, it’s a lot less complicated. It’s Huckabee, Huckabee, Huckabee and Huckabee. His margins range from 5 points (Strategic Vision) to 16 points (Rasmussen) in the last four polls. The big question for Huckabee is whether his newfound popularity will be matched by his supporters actually showing up at caucuses.

Mike Huckabee

Mitt Romney receives 22 to 25 percent support in the polls, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson are at about 10 percent, and John McCain is at about 6 percent.

In New Hampshire, it’s a different story, with Romney holding leads of 12 to 15 points in the last four polls (FOX News, Concord Monitor, Rassmussen, Suffolk U/WHDH.) McCain comes in second in three of the four.

But the Democratic race is a muddle in New Hampshire, just as it is in Iowa. Clinton leads by 7 points (Suffolk U/WHDH) and 9 points (FOX), but Obama leads by 1 (Concord) and 3 (Rasmussen).

Nationwide, it’s as it’s always been — Clinton and Giuliani leading their respective fields, although Huckabee now has gained a toehold in one poll — Rasmussen’s 4-day tracking poll, where he holds a 2-point margin over Giuliani.

For more on these and other polls, go to Real Clear Politics, an excellent resource for polls.

In her story today, Patricia Lopez describes how the presidential campaign in Iowa spills over the border into southern Minnesota. That includes a blizzard of ads landing in Minnesotan’s living rooms.

Here’s a sample of the ads that the leading candidates are airing in Iowa. Take a look at them and then weigh in with your reactions.

Here’s Obama’s ad on education, titled “Chances I Had.”

Here is John Edwards’s “20 Generations” ad, in which he seeks to establish himself as a spirited fighter against greed and corruption, in behalf of the little guy.

Here are two Clinton ads. This one is called “New Beginning.”

And this one features Retired Gen. Wesley Clark.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are battling it out — in the polls and on the airwaves.

Here’s Mitt Romney’s ad attacking Huckabee on immigration.

And here’s another Romney ad called “Not Politically Correct,” in which he attempts to reassure conservatives on some key issues.

Here’s Huckabee talking about securing the borders.

And here’s the ad featuring actor Chuck Norris that no doubt helped people warm up to Huckabee.

What do you think about these ads?